This is shaping up to be a brutal summer to be a teenager looking for work. The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas projects teens will pick up about 790,000 jobs from May through July, down from last year's record low of 801,000. That would be the weakest summer hiring since the government started counting in 1948. NPR called it the worst teen job market in decades.
The blame this year falls on real things. AI and automation have swallowed jobs at the mall, the register, and the movie counter. Older workers are staying put longer, and leisure employers like theme parks, resorts, and hotels announced 70% fewer hiring plans through April than a year earlier.
But the slide is older than any chatbot. Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Harvard economist Roland Fryer notes that teen labor-force participation peaked in 1979 and has fallen ever since, from about 49% of teenagers holding a job then to 31% today. For most, leaving was a choice. A college degree pays off more than it used to, so families with money trade the part-time job for tutors, camps, and internships.
The kids who can't make that trade are the ones we should worry about. Among the poorest families, only about a quarter of teens had a summer job in 2023, and plenty who want one can't find it. The tighter the market gets, the harder they get squeezed.
A paycheck does more than fill a wallet. It gives a teenager somewhere to be and something to answer for. Fryer points to a Chicago study by economist Sara Heller, who found an eight-week summer job cut violent-crime arrests among disadvantaged teens by 43%, with the effect growing after the job ended.
That's the real value, and it's worth paying for. Cities and employers should make summer jobs easier to get for the teens who need them most. A shift at the register won't build a resume for Harvard. But for a kid who might otherwise drift, it can keep him on track and, in some cases, alive.
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