The Money Race
Sherrod Brown has a significant fundraising lead. The former senator has raised more than $16.5 million, mostly from everyday Ohioans who gave an average of $35 each. Jon Husted has raised far less on his own, but a national Republican super PAC called the Senate Leadership Fund has pledged $79 million to help close that gap, making Ohio its single biggest target in the country this year.
Once that money starts flowing, television ads, digital ads, and mailers will flood the state from now until Election Day. Ohioans who remember 2024 know what's coming — by early October, changing the channel won’t matter, and ads will flood every inch of the market.
Who the Unions Are Backing
Unions matter in Ohio, and both candidates are working hard to win them over. Brown has endorsements from the United Auto Workers, the Ohio Federation of Teachers, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, and the Ohio Nurses Association.
Husted has made inroads, picking up the Operating Engineers union in all 88 Ohio counties and the Northwest Ohio Building and Construction Trades Council, groups that backed Brown in the past. The union battle alone suggests this race is tighter than most predicted.
What the Polls Say
The race is a toss-up. A Bowling Green State University poll from April showed Husted leading Brown 50% to 47%, within the margin of error. An earlier Emerson College poll had Husted up six points shortly after Brown entered, but that lead has shrunk.
Tom Sutton, a retired Baldwin Wallace University political science professor and one of Ohio's most widely cited nonpartisan election analysts, says the economy and the war overseas will make the difference.
"November will tell us a lot," Sutton said.
What to Expect This Fall
This is the first U.S. Senate special election in Ohio since 1954, and the Cook Political Report has moved the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican since Brown entered, a sign that Washington is paying attention.
Ohio midterms typically draw around 50 percent of registered voters, but Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French told Salon that Democrats are counting on strong union ground operations and motivated small-dollar donors to push turnout higher in key counties. Brown needs those union households to show up.
Husted needs Trump voters and $79 million in outside money to do the same. The winner will be back on the ballot in two years, making November just the first round. Ohio voters have seen this before, and they are about to see it again.
This race will almost certainly shatter spending records, but Ohio has a way of humbling the side that thinks money wins elections. Ads create noise. At some point, voters tune them out, walk into the booth, and make up their own minds. The candidate who figures that out first may have the real advantage.
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